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Although concerns about post-high steel exports remain unabated

Date:2014-11-10 17:25:35

This year, China's steel exports due to occupy relatively large price advantage, and benefit from the economic recovery abroad, the case needs to improve, has maintained a high level of total exports, September is a record 8.52 million tons of records, an increase of 73 %. Substantial growth in exports of surplus steel can play a good diversion effect, thereby reducing the pressure on the market, and promoting the weak trend in domestic steel prices rise. Therefore, whether the late exports remain high also become a focus of the market.

October export figures recently released the latest Customs, aspects of steel exports still did not disappoint, even slightly beyond September. Data show that from January to October Chinese steel exports 73.893 million tons, an increase of 42.2%; January to October, China imported 780 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 16.5%, the average import price of 646.9 yuan per ton, down 19.8 percent; 12,094,000 tons of steel imports increased 4.1 percent, the average import price of 7657 yuan per ton, up 1.5%. Preliminary accounting, October exports of steel 8.55 million tons, a record high.

October steel exports continue to grow, even more determined this year, steel exports topped 80 million tons of facts; sluggish demand in the domestic steel prices fell, the export share a high level of good part of the surplus production to bring supply pressure plus the export tax rebate policy, some steel prices have increased export efforts.

However, we can not ignore the problem has been accompanied by a series of export produce. China's steel in the international market to gain advantage, mainly because of China's steel prices compared with international prices were quite different. Domestic steel market due to a drop in demand, while still a serious surplus production, supply and demand led to the intensification of the steel has been in decline among more in September fell below 3,000 mark, reaching nearly 10 years to the lowest level on the market jokes steel 1.6 yuan / kg cabbage price will buy, when domestic and foreign steel maximum difference reached 1,500 yuan / ton. And cheap products with low added value, and some shoddy mills even for profit; such products surge is not tight in the international market difficult to create a good image, and for the local steel market has some impact; therefore subject to foreign steel market is getting more attention, followed by the outbreak of trade friction is.

I've seen it, there are 12 cases in October about anti-dumping investigations against Chinese steel products, and trade frictions transferred from American and European countries to trends in developing countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and other obvious. For example, on October 5, the Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Commerce decided to import from China cold-rolled stainless steel products (coils or plates)) formal anti-dumping measures, which is open since the Vietnam market and integration into the world economy for the first time to take anti-dumping duties; 16 Malaysian origin made in China's hot rolled, pickled and oiled coil checkered volume of anti-dumping investigations; on the 30th of Brazil announced the official Chinese seamless steel pipe anti-dumping duties, taxation standard $ 908.59 / ton, five-year term, etc. and so on. . . The face of global steel overcapacity, curb the influx of Chinese overcapacity local demeanor import way the world more and more, in addition to raising import duties, anti-dumping and countervailing duties, the strengthening of the import license management, and strengthening customs inspection they also strengthen the national standard approach taken.

In the short term lead to a number of countries to launch anti-dumping investigations also caused widespread concern in the industry that China came to be canceled export tax rebate stimulus to reduce exports to ease international pressure on trade friction, the elimination of export tax rebate is not a trivial matter, for steel industry will have a great impact. However, because of too much downward pressure on the domestic economy, to stabilize the economy and maintain stable export, and then came temporarily abolish the export tax rebate policy. But this we can estimate that the frequent occurrence of trade friction for steel exports still have some suppression.

In addition, with a walk in winter, the seasonal trend is clearly weakening demand, the economic vitality of foreign markets have receded; data showed the euro zone in October purchasing managers' index (PMI) the final value was revised down to 52.1, lower than at the beginning value of 52.2; 52.0 9 month-end value for 10-month low; show business activity is still less than the expected growth rate. Germany October composite PMI was revised down to 53.9 final value, lower than the initial value of 54.3 and 54.1 9 month-end value; although the index is higher than the 50 line ups and downs, but much lower than the year earlier level. France October composite PMI final value of 48.2, well below the ups and downs of the watershed 50. PMI manufacturing base overseas markets are lower than the expected value, indicating that market demand growth is slowing, which will also affect China's steel exports late.

On the whole, although the current steel exports remain at a high level, but the latter part of the problem but still worrying; if exports down, excess capacity in the domestic market would digest the supply pressure increases; and the demand side, I do not believe to say, we all know that the current trend of demand remains mired in the doldrums, in the off-season effect, the demand is difficult to want to pick up. Therefore, in the case of supply and demand is still intensifying, steel prices remain weak shock.

TypeInfo: Industry news

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